What Percentage of Everest Climbers Reach the Summit?
By Blake Penson, Founder of ExpedReview · Everest summiter · Seven Summits climber · 20-year mountaineer · Industry expert
Last reviewed: 20 October 2026 · Editorial picks are ranked only by verified ExpedReview reviews; sponsors cannot buy a position.
The short answer
The Himalayan Database's summits-to-members figure for Everest is 51.5% (13,550 summits, 26,316 members). That counts every summit, including Sherpas' repeat ascents, so it overstates the rate for first-time clients. An older Himalayan Database analysis of spring 1980–2002 put climbers' success at roughly one in three on the South Col and one in four on the North Col.
| Key figure | What it is |
|---|---|
| 51.5% | summits per member, Everest (HDB) |
| ~1 in 3 | South Col climbers, spring 1980–2002 (Huey & Salisbury) |
| ~1 in 4 | North Col climbers, spring 1980–2002 |
| 97.5% | share of Everest summits made in spring (Arnette, from HDB) |
How does Everest compare with other 8,000 m peaks?
| Peak | Summit rate (summits / members) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Everest | 51.5% | HDB |
| Manaslu | 45.7% | HDB |
| Cho Oyu | 44.0% | HDB |
| Lhotse | 42.1% | HDB |
| Makalu | 30.6% | HDB |
| Annapurna I | 27.1% | HDB |
| Dhaulagiri I | 23.5% | HDB |
Why is the headline rate misleading?
The database figure divides all summits by all members. Professional Sherpas and guides who summit repeatedly push it up. The 2003 American Alpine Journal analysis separated climbers from high-altitude porters and found much lower per-climber spring success for 1980–2002. Modern commercial rates are higher than that era, but no public dataset splits today's results by client and operator.
Which season gives the best odds?
Spring, overwhelmingly. Alan Arnette's analysis of Himalayan Database dates found 97.5% of Everest summits were made in spring and 81.5% fell between 15 and 27 May.
Do operators publish their own success rates?
Some do, but those figures are self-reported and defined differently (per team, per client, per attempt). ExpedReview does not publish operator success rates because we cannot audit them. Ask how a quoted rate is calculated and over how many seasons.
What else should you plan for?
| Item | Figure or guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sherpa-to-client ratio | 1:1 on summit day is standard; Furtenbach budgets 2 Sherpas per client; Seven Summit Treks VIP 3 per client | Operator pages |
| Guide-to-client ratio | 1 Western guide to 4 clients at Adventure Consultants and Furtenbach; up to 1:5 on CTSS's IFMGA team tier | Operator pages |
| Oxygen bottles | About US$650 per bottle, 5 minimum in an independent budget; operators publish 6 (Makalu Adventure) to 20 (Seven Summit Treks VIP); CTSS 11 including 3 for the Sherpa | Arnette 2026; operator pages |
| Summit winds | In 2019 only three days had summit winds under 35 mph (56 km/h) for more than 600 climbers | Alan Arnette, 2026 season summary |
| Acclimatisation | Standard trips rotate to Camp 2 and the Lhotse Face; Furtenbach's Flash replaces most rotations with a home hypoxic tent for up to 8 weeks | Furtenbach Adventures; Arnette 2026 summary |
Frequently asked questions
What is the success rate on Everest?
The Himalayan Database lists 13,550 summits against 26,316 members, a 51.5% ratio. Per-client success is lower because Sherpas' repeat summits are included.
Is the South Col or North Ridge more successful?
For spring 1980–2002, climbers had about a one-in-three chance on the South Col and one-in-four on the North Col (Huey & Salisbury, AAJ 2003). Newer route-split data is not publicly summarised.
When do most people summit Everest?
In May. 81.5% of summits fell between 15 and 27 May in Alan Arnette's analysis of Himalayan Database records.
Sources
- Himalayan Database, '8000m Peak Comparison' report (himalayan-database.climbing-history.org/reports/8000m-peaks), Nepal records.
- Huey & Salisbury, 'Success & death on Mount Everest', American Alpine Journal 2003 (himalayandatabase.com/downloads/Ever-AAJ2003.pdf).
- Alan Arnette, 'Everest 2025: When Will They Summit?', alanarnette.com, 22 Apr 2025 (analysis of Himalayan Database summit dates).
How ExpedReview data works: counts are approved, verified client reviews on ExpedReview as of 20 October 2026. ERTI is ExpedReview's trust index, a summary of review evidence and operator conduct on the platform; it is one input, not a guarantee. Listed prices are each operator's lowest "from" price on ExpedReview and change often. Historical fatality and summit ratios describe past expeditions, not your personal odds.